| Trump’s tariff threat puts US farm exports to China at risk |
| 🇨🇳 The threat of new 10% tariffs by the US on Chinese products, proposed by Trump, could further impact US agricultural exports to China, which have already fallen by 14% in 2024, amounting to US$29.25 billion. Since 2018, with the trade war between the two countries, Chinese tariffs on products such as soybeans, meat and corn have ranged from 25%, severely affecting US farmers. China has sought to diversify its international reach by increasing purchases from Brazil and other suppliers, reducing its dependence on the US.💵 Soybeans, which account for half of US agricultural exports to China, have been one of the hardest hit. In 2024, the total value of soybeans exported to the Asian country was US$12.8 billion, but the US market share fell from 40% in 2016 to 18% in 2024, as China preferred to buy the cheaper and more abundant supply from Brazil, whose share rose from 46% to 74%. Chinese dependence on American corn has also decreased significantly, with imports falling from US$ 2.6 billion in 2023 to US$ 561 million in 2024, following the approval of purchases from Brazil in 2022.🌾 Other US agricultural products, such as meat, cotton and sorghum, also face challenges. Meat and offal exports fell to $2.54 billion in 2024, down from $4.11 billion in 2021. Demand for cotton has also fallen due to a downturn in the Chinese textile sector, and US sorghum purchases, although growing slightly, face competition with grains from Australia and Argentina. Despite this, American farmers continue to describe the Chinese market as “irreplaceable” because of its importance. Source: Reuters |
| JP Morgan sees copper prices at $11,000/mt in 2026, 10% tariffs by late 3Q25 |
| 💰 JP Morgan projects that copper prices will reach $11,000 per metric ton by 2026, driven by a global deficit of 160,000 tons. This shortage could be intensified by tariffs of 10% on organic copper imports, which the US must implement by the end of the third quarter of 2025, with the risk of increasing to 25%. In addition, the bank expects demand from China to fall from 4% to 2.5% in 2025, which represents the greatest risk for the global market, despite the slight slowdown in the growth of world copper demand.🏛️ The bank points out that, with the imminence of tariffs in the US, the country could accumulate stocks, leaving less copper for the rest of the world, setting the stage for an increase in metal prices in the second half of 2025, reaching US$ 10,400/t. The global market already showed a deficit of 22,000 tons in December 2024, and Citi analysts also predicted heavier tariffs of 25% by the fourth quarter of 2025. China’s economic slowdown continues to be a crucial factor affecting demand for copper.📊 Meanwhile, the copper market in London rose at the beginning of March, supported by a weaker dollar and signs of recovery in industrial activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of metals. The upward trend in copper prices continues to be fueled by the prospects of limited supply and trade policies, especially between the US and China trade prices. JP Morgan points out that despite a projected slowdown, global demand for the metal remains strong, with the focus on US protectionist policies. Source: Reuters |
